Abstract

We analyzed 46 years of multi-environment sunflower trials to quantify how temperature drives optimal flowering phenology across the Great Plains. Using hierarchical Bayesian models, we show that temperature is the primary driver of optimal flowering time, and that a single week off from optimal phenology causes a median 23% yield reduction. These findings highlight the challenge of breeding for optimal phenology under climate change.

Key Figure

Model predictions of optimal days to flowering for sunflower
Figure 5: Model predictions of optimal number of days to flowering across a range of planting days, average site degree days, and yearly anomalies. Predicted optimal days to flowering is indicated by the color of each cell.

Topics

phenologyagricultureclimatesunflowerphenology